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Trading businesses were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, excluding any seasonal trading. Data are outlined in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a third (31%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had actually reduced in January 2026 compared with the previous month.
However, the movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by little falls in January. The industries with the highest proportion reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the lodging and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 portion point rise from December 2025) the other services market (45%) the arts, entertainment and recreation market (40%) Around 16% of trading companies reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point boost compared with December 2025.
For trading services with 10 or more employees, 33% reported that their turnover had reduced, which was broadly steady compared with December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) businesses reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 portion points compared with December 2025. Typically, the proportion of companies reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of business.
The exception to this was the percentage for businesses with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading companies were asked how they expect their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to predict how business's turnover will really alter once that calendar month concludes.
Trends between expected turnover and actual turnover have broadly moved in the same direction, the motions for expectations tend to be larger. For presentational functions, some response options have actually been removed. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Care ought to be taken when analyzing expectations concerns, as the workers reacting on behalf of services may not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations.
More than one in 5 (21%) trading businesses anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 portion point rise from February 2026 but was broadly stable compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The percentage of trading businesses expecting an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported an actual boost in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a slight pessimism in services expectations.
Nevertheless, the patterns have broadly followed each other since the questions were introduced in April 2022. The outcomes for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the percentage of companies anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Bigger companies were most likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the proportion varying from 20% for companies with 0 to 9 workers, to 42% for organizations with 100 to 249 workers.
For presentational purposes, some action options have been removed. Information are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave. Caution should be taken when translating expectations concerns, as the workers responding on behalf of services may not have full oversight of all of their business's future expectations. "." represents information not yet available.
The percentage of trading businesses that anticipated a decrease in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported a real reduction in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of businesses anticipating turnover to reduce for a particular month ahead of time has actually stayed substantially lower than the proportion of businesses reporting an actual reduction in that month given that April 2022.
Nevertheless, expectations for turnover to reduce have regularly followed the exact same pattern, as real reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading businesses were asked what difficulties, if any, were impacting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.
For trading organizations with 10 or more employees, cost of labour was the most often reported difficulty, at 36%. Businesses with 10 to 49 employees were more likely to report expense of labour as a challenge than services with 250 or more staff members (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading businesses with 10 or more employees indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026.
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